"China has provided the rest of the world with available, cheaper solar panels, while reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the process. In this regard, China has indeed achieved the world's leading position." Martin Green, a professor at the University of New South Wales in 2023, told the media, including reporters from the Daily Business News, during the sixth China International Photovoltaic Industry Conference held on November 13.

From the "three heads outside" at that time to the "three world firsts" today, China's photovoltaic has become a "Chinese business card" comparable to high-speed rail in the new era ". According to CCTV News Network, my country has formed the world's most complete photovoltaic industry chain. In the first three quarters, the national output of silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules increased by more than 70% year-on-year, and the total output value of the photovoltaic industry exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan.

At the same time, it should be noted that "price war" and "overcapacity" are becoming hot keywords in the photovoltaic industry. As the "father of solar energy in the world", how does Martin Green view the industry pattern in the "price war"? Change, how should companies survive the "cold winter", PERC (Passivated Emitter and Back Contact), TOPCon (Tunneling Oxide Passivated Contact), HJT (Amorphous Silicon Thin Film Heterojunction Cell), IBC (Interdigitated Back Contact Cell) and other different solar cell technical routes will eventually win. Martin Green gave his answer in media exchanges with reporters including national business daily.

"Inner volume", "price war", "industry reshuffle", "overcapacity" and so on are becoming the key words in the photovoltaic industry. From the secondary market point of view, the photovoltaic sector many stocks fell significantly, Wind photovoltaic index component of a total of 85 stocks, of which more than 80% of the year-to-date range gains are negative.

From the price side, the winning price of silicon and components is constantly going down. Wind data shows that the market price of domestic silicon materials has dropped from 307 yuan/kg at the end of November last year to 74 yuan/kg recently. Judging from public reports, the component winning price even frequently fell below 1 yuan/W. Lu Jinbiao, deputy director of the expert Committee of the China Nonferrous Metals Silicon Industry Branch, said in a recent interview with the media that according to the current silicon price, the component price is around 1.3 yuan/W, and the industry is profitable.

In the face of overcapacity, price decline and other challenges, photovoltaic industry chain manufacturers, especially small and medium-sized manufacturers how to survive the "winter"? Martin Green believes that to enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises is the key. "Although companies are facing many challenges now, in general, companies with better technical strength will survive, while companies with weaker development will definitely go bankrupt".

He further mentioned that although large companies have a greater chance of survival, if start-ups choose the right technical route, there is a great possibility that they can survive. "The bankruptcy of many companies in the industry may stem from older technology, equipment, materials, etc. In the context of rapidly changing technology, if you are unwilling to embrace innovation, or do not anticipate (technological changes), it is likely that you will react very slowly to the survival of the fittest in the market and will eventually be eliminated by the market".

Regarding the argument of overcapacity, Martin Green believes that there is indeed a process from scarcity to surplus in the history of the photovoltaic industry. It is necessary to increase the demand of certain industries and enterprises so that the stock can be applied and the stored energy can enter The next stage of scarcity will eventually reach a balance of supply. He also emphasized that "the consequences of climate change are becoming more and more obvious, so solar energy must be used to replace non-renewable energy sources such as thermal power, so that the world can avoid the consequences of climate change".

As Martin Green has said, start-ups also have a chance to survive on the right technological path. So which technical route can win the market competition?

According to Martin Green, there are currently four main technologies in the industry. One is PERC technology, which has appeared since the 1980 s; the other is TOPCon technology, which is widely used in business and is currently worldwide. A new technology widely used; the third is HJT, which is widely used in Japan and currently has some commercial applications; the fourth is IBC technology.

"In fact, the (technical) path of these 4 kinds of batteries is now more competitive." Martin Green said that more than 90% of the batteries in the world will be PERC in 2022. It is expected that the amount of PERC will drop a little this year, about 70%. In addition, 20% is almost TOPCon, and the remaining 10% is basically HJT and IBC.

Martin Green said frankly that no one knows which path will win in the future, but he believes that the next five years will be a critical period to see which of the four implementation paths is more feasible. "We are more inclined to believe that (the winning technical route) is actually a combination, such as TOPCon and HJT, or TOPCon and IBC."

In addition, Martin Green also said that in the future development of the photovoltaic industry, we should continue to make more efforts in carbon reduction. At the same time, there is more room for energy storage to make a difference. "In the final analysis, we need to have a very healthy photovoltaic industry, because it is of great significance not only to China, but also to the whole world".

Regarding the future development of photovoltaics and energy storage, Martin Green told the "Daily Business News" reporter that energy storage is very important, especially at the critical stage of the transition from fossil energy to renewable energy. The good news is that thanks to the rapid development of electric vehicles, the cost of batteries is gradually falling.

He further mentioned that in addition to battery energy storage, the second way to store energy is to pump water from low to high mountains and use the potential energy difference of water to generate electricity, that is, pumped storage; the third is to build a more efficient Power transmission system. "China is undoubtedly the world leader in this regard. For example, the high-voltage transmission lines built can reach thousands of kilometers, so a more efficient and cheaper power transmission is also a good way to store energy".